EIA Expects Higher U.S. Crude Production

UPI, Mar 7, 2012

Crude oil production in the United States is expected to surge to 5.83 million barrels per day in 2012, an increase from last year, the EIA declared.

The U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its March energy outlook that crude oil production should increase from 5.6 million barrels per day in 2011 [please see remarks below -- D.R.] to 5.83 million bpd in 2012 [please see remarks below -- D.R.].

Critics accuse U.S. President Barack Obama of blocking domestic energy production. The White House says oil production is the highest it's been in years, though Republican leaders say that's because of policies enacted by the previous administration. [Read more]

(U.S. crude oil production increased by an estimated 120 thousand bbl/d to 5.60 million bbl/d in 2011. A 390-thousand bbl/d increase in lower-48 onshore production in 2011 was partly offset by a 40-thousand bbl/d decline in Alaska and a 230-thousand bbl/d decline in output in the Federal Gulf of Mexico/GOM. Forecast U.S. total crude oil production increases by 230 thousand bbl/d in 2012 and by a further 90 thousand bbl/d in 2013. Continued increases in lower-48 onshore crude oil production of 340 thousand bbl/d in 2012 overshadow declines averaging about 20 thousand bbl/d in Alaskan output and a 90-thousand bbl/d decrease in GOM production. The rise in production is driven by increased oil-directed drilling activity, particularly in onshore shale formations (my emphasis -- D.R.). The number of onshore oil-directed drilling rigs reported by Baker Hughes increased from 777 at the beginning of 2011 to 1,293 on March 2, 2012---please see EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 6, 2012. Also, please see Aaron and David Rachovich, "U.S. Crude Oil Production, 1970-2010 -- EIA". -- D.R.)

Floating Production, Storage Orders Set Record Pace

by OGJ editors, OGJ, Houston, Aug 3, 2011
A record pace in the number of floating production and storage orders was noted in a recent study by International Maritime Associates [IMA] Inc., Washington DC. [Please see remarks below -- D.R.]

The study found that the industry has placed a record 14 orders for floating units since March. Currently 256 floating systems are in service or available worldwide, according to the study.

Of these, 62% are floating production, storage, offloading (FPSO) vessels; 17% are production semisubmersibles; 9% are tension leg platforms; 7% are production spars; and the remaining 5% are production barges and floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs).

Eleven of the 256 units are not on a field and are available for reuse.

The 14 orders since March include the world’s first floating LNG vessel. The $3 billion Prelude FLNG [please see remarks and image below -- D.R.] is the most expensive floating production unit ordered to date, the study noted.

Among the other orders, 9 are FPSOs (1 purpose-built unit, 6 units converted from trading tanker hulls, and 2 modification redeployments), 2 production spars, and 2 purpose-built FSRUs. The 14 construction contracts for these units exceed $11 billion, the study said.

Current order backlog includes 53 production floaters, a net increase of 6 units since March. This extends the buildup in backlog that began in second-half 2009, the study noted.

Of the 53 units, 28 have purpose built hulls and 25 have converted tanker hulls. Also 20 are orders from leasing operators, while 33 are orders from field operators.

The study identified 196 projects in the bidding, design, or planning stage that potentially will require floating production or storage. These projects are declared discoveries or planned developments where floating production or storage is an option.

Brazil has the most with 50 potential floater projects in the planning cycle. Next in line is Southeast Asia with 37, followed by West Africa with 36, Northern Europe with 22, Gulf of Mexico with 17, and Australia with 11.

Of the 196 planned projects, 53 are in the bidding or final design stage. Major hardware contracts for these 53 projects are likely to be let within the next 12-18 months, the study noted.

Another 143 floater projects are in the planning or study phase, and major hardware contracts for these are likely to be let in 2013-18, according to the study. [Full story]

(IMA has been producing detailed market reports on floating production for the past 15 years. The reports focus on equipment requirements for floating production projects. They are designed for use in business planning by companies servicing this sector. Three reports are issued during the year -- in March, July and November. For the July 2011 Floating Production Systems Report and for previous reports, please see IMA, here. Floating liquefied natural gas/FLNG is a revolutionary technology that will allow Shell to access offshore gas fields that would otherwise be too costly or difficult to develop. Shell took final investment decision on the Prelude FLNG Project on May 20, 2011. It will start building a FLNG facility to produce and export LNG off the coast of Australia at the site of the gas field. Moored far out to sea, some 200 kilometers from the nearest land in Australia, the FLNG facility will produce gas from offshore fields, and liquefy it onboard by cooling for export at sea. The Prelude FLNG facility will be the largest floating offshore facility in the world. It will be built at Samsung Heavy Industries’ Geoje Island shipyards in South Korea---please see "Prelude FLNG - An Overview," and "Shell Decides to Move Forward with Groundbreaking Floating LNG." and "Samsung Says Shell Prelude FLNG Vessel To Cost $3 Billion," as well as my tweets on Twitter dated on May 20 and June 23, 2011, here. Separately, please see my post "BOEMRE Approves First FPSO Use in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico." -- D.R.)
                               Graphic of Shell's Prelude FLNG

                                                                    Source: Shell, here

United States: Top 8 Crude Oil Producing States, 2006-Feb.2011

by Aaron and David Rachovich

Production of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2006-Feb.2011  

Rank	State	Feb 2011	Jan 2011	Full Year 2010	Full Year 2009	Full Year 2008	Full Year 2007	Full Year 2006
1.	Texas	1,224	1,250	1,141	1,106	1,087	1,087	1,088
2.	Alaska	611	464	599	645	683	722	741
3.	California	555	550	558	567	586	594	612
4.	North Dakota	360	341	307	218	172	123	109
5.	Oklahoma	188	197	186	184	175	167	172
6.	Louisiana	187	185	182	189	199	210	202
7.	New Mexico	178	185	171	168	162	161	164
8.	Wyoming	143	146	142	141	145	148	145
Top 8 States		3,446	3,318	3,286	3,218	3,209	3,212	3,233
U.S. Total		5,612	5,483	5,512	5,361	4,950	5,064	5,102

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), June 29, 2011, here and here.

(In 2010, almost 60% of U.S. crude oil production came from eight States: Texas - 20.7%; Alaska - 10.9%; California - 10.1%; North Dakota - 5.6%; Oklahoma - 3.4%; Louisiana - 3.3%; New Mexico - 3.1%; and Wyoming - 2.6%. About 30% of U.S. crude oil was produced from wells located offshore in federally administered waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Update: please see my post "Five States Accounted for about 56% of Total U.S. Crude Oil Production in 2011." Update 2: North Dakota passed Alaska in March 2012 to become the second-leading state in crude oil production, trailing only Texas---please see my post "North Dakota Tops Alaska in Oil Production, Trailing Only Texas." Also, please see our post "U.S. Crude Oil Production, 1970-2010." -- D.R.)

Purvin & Gertz Estimates Future [U.S.] Unconventional Oil Output

by Paula Dittrick, OGJ Senior Staff Writer, OGJ, Jun 24, 2011
Unconventional oil production from the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Niobrara plays is expected to approach 900,000 b/d in 2015 and exceed 1.3 million b/d by 2020, a consultant forecast.

Purvin & Gertz Inc. estimates current oil production from the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Niobrara plays at 350,000-400,000 b/d.

The Bakken formation is in North Dakota and Montana, the Eagle Ford is in South Texas, and the Niobrara is in Colorado and Wyoming.

Geoff Houlton, a vice-president with Purvin & Gertz in Houston, told OGJ that shale oil production likely will help offset US oil import volumes in coming years.

Increasing supplies of light, sweet crude from shale oil plays are expected to reduce oil imports of similar quality crude into the Gulf Coast by greater than 500,000 b/d by 2016, he said.

Purvin & Gertz released its base-case forecast in a study entitled “US Midcontinent Crude Oil Market Analysis,” which examined oil logistics and pricing. [Read more]

(Current production from the Eagle Ford is roughly 100,000 barrels per day of crude oil and condensate >> OGJ, May 6, 2011 or EPP press release May 3, 2011. Also, please see my post "BENTEK: Eagle Ford Crude Oil Production Expected to Grow Fivefold in Five Years," here. For maps of the Eagle Ford shale, please see here. For the map of North American shale plays from the U.S. Energy Information Administration/EIA, including the United States, Canada and Mexico, as of May 9, 2011, please see here. Operators increased North Dakota's Bakken production from less than 3,000 barrels per day in 2005 to over 230,000 barrels per day in 2010. The Bakken's share of total North Dakota oil production rose from about 3 percent to about 75 percent over the same period. North Dakota produced an average of 307,000 barrels of crude oil per day in 2010 and comprised about 5.6 percent of the nation's total crude production. The increase in U.S. crude oil production in 2010 was led by escalating horizontal drilling programs in U.S. shale plays---please see my post "United States: Oil Production from Shale Formations, 2005-2010 -- EIA," here. UPDATE: In its Twitter post on June 25th, Platts said, "About 50,000 b/d of Bakken crude oil not being shipped out of N. Dakota due to record flooding in Minot area: state official." -- D.R.)

World Watch [IEA Oil Release]

by Vincent Lauerman, New York, EI, Jun 23, 2011
International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka announced on Thursday [June 23] that the consumer organization's 28 member countries had agreed to release 60 million barrels of oil stocks – including 30 million bbl from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve [SPR] – in the coming month. Tanaka was following up on his implicit threat in May to unlock the reserves if Opec did not agree to increase supplies at its failed Jun. 8 meeting. The IEA has released strategic stocks twice before [please see details below -- D.R.], but this release clearly breaks with historical precedent [also, according to Peter Kemp, the IEA's release of oil stocks marks a new turn in oil market intervention---please see "World Watch," EI, Jun 24, 2011 -- D.R.]. Although the IEA framed the release in terms of the ongoing supply disruption in Libya, market sources say there is no actual shortage of physical crude. The IEA is instead making a pre-emptive move, looking ahead to “the threat of a serious market tightening” in the second half of the year, at a time when “world economies are still recovering.” Economic growth has been weakening, especially in OECD countries such as the US [...]

(In its 37-year history the IEA has collectively agreed to release strategic petroleum stocks only twice before to fill lost supplies -- in 1991 at the outbreak of the first Gulf War following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, and in 2005 after Hurricane Katrina damaged offshore oil rigs, pipelines and oil refineries in the Gulf of Mexico. Separately, please also see Petroleum Economist (PE) commentary -- The IEA's release of crude from strategic stocks is less about Libya than about the global economy - and it should send oil prices tumbling, says the editor of PE Derek Brower. Also, please see retweets by me on Twitter dated June 23, here. The IEA has been warning since the turn of the year of rising oil burden -- "Were $100/bbl oil to become entrenched in 2011, that would risk pushing the [oil burden] figure through 5%," IEA said---please see my post "IEA Warns of Rising Oil Burden." The price of crude, if sustained at $100 a barrel or more for the rest of 2011, would cause similar demand destruction as the world experienced in 2008 that led to the global economic crisis, Nobuo Tanaka, IEA executive director, said---please see The Telegraph, Apr 20, 2011. Please compare the above-mentioned analysis to the IEA's official position -- The use of IEA strategic stocks "is not about price but rather about ensuring an adequately supplied market to protect the world economy from unnecessary damage when it is in a fragile state." [?]---please see IEA: Key Questions answered on the release of oil stocks or more precisely "IEA collective action – June 23, 2011: FAQ." The SPR crude oil stocks are stored in underground salt caverns along the Gulf of Mexico Coast. Currently, there are a historically high 726.6 million barrels of crude oil in SPR, close to its 727.0 million barrel capacity. Historically, releases from the SPR have taken one of two forms, either an exchange, where oil provided in the release is then repaid within a specified time, or sales, where oil is auctioned off in a competitive bidding process. The United States has released crude oil from the SPR a number of times since 1985, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. The most recent release was the 5.4 million barrel exchange following Hurricanes Gustav and Ike in September 2008. To date, the largest release was a 30 million barrel exchange in the fall of 2000 in response to low heating oil supplies in the Northeast region of the United States---please see chart below and U.S. Energy Information Administration/EIA, Today in Energy, Jun 24, 2011, here. -- D.R.)
              [Click on chart to enlarge]

 

United States: Oil Production from Shale Formations, 2005-2010 -- EIA

Extracted from EIA, This Week in Petroleum, Apr 27, 2011

             [Click on bar chart to enlarge]

Operators increased North Dakota's Bakken production from less than 3,000 bbl/d in 2005 to over 230,000 bbl/d in 2010. The Bakken's share of total North Dakota oil production rose from about 3 percent to about 75 percent over the same period. At the Barnett shale in Texas, overall oil production more than tripled from 2005 to 2010. Oil production from the Woodford shale in Oklahoma surpassed 4,000 bbl/d in 2010, up 42 percent from 2009 and nearly three times 2008 volumes. At the Eagle Ford shale formation in Texas, oil production, which was negligible in 2005, approached 30,000 bbl/d in 2010 [sic]. [Update: for the Eagle Ford production, please see my post/remarks here -- D.R.] Oil production from Appalachia's Marcellus shale more than doubled in 2010 from a year earlier and has grown nearly thirteen-fold since 2007. [Please see here. -- D.R.]

(U.S. production of crude oil and lease condensate increased in 2009 and again in 2010. While much of the increase in 2009 was associated with deepwater developments in the Federal Gulf of Mexico, the increase in 2010 was led by escalating horizontal drilling programs in U.S. shale plays, notably the North Dakota section of the Bakken formation---please see my post "Domestic Oil Production Reversed Decades-Long Decline in 2009 and 2010," including remarks, here. For North Dakota's oil production in historical perspective, please see my post "North Dakota ... ," remarks below, here. For the Eagle Ford shale production and development, please see my posts here and here. -- D.R.)