Monday, June 6, 2011

Indonesia to Fall Short of 2011 Oil Output Target - BPMigas

Platts, May 25, 2011
Indonesia's crude and condensate production this year will likely average between 933,000 b/d and 945,000 b/d, below its target of 970,000 b/d as a result of unplanned shutdowns, the chairman of upstream regulator BPMigas said Tuesday [please see remarks below -- D.R.].

"The average production this year is expected [to] reach 933,000 b/d in minimum or 945,000 b/d in maximum," R. Priyono said in a parliamentary hearing. [...]

Gas production is now expected to average 7.808 Bcf/d, exceeding its target this year of 7.769 Bcf/d, Priyono said. [...]

The country's oil and gas revenue in 2011 is now seen reaching $31.088 billion, well above the target of $26.554 billion, as crude and gas prices are expected to be higher than previously forecast. [...]

Indonesia's crude and condensate output has been steadily sliding for at least the last decade [also, please see my post "Top 8 Oil Producers in Asia & Oceania, 2006-2010," and please see remarks below -- D.R.] because of natural declines at aging fields. But the government hopes to be able to produce 1 million b/d of crude and condensate by 2013.

The country failed to achieve its 2010 crude target of 965,000 b/d, pumping only 947,000 b/d. However the country exceeded last year's gas production by 17.4% to 8.88 Bcf/d from a target of 7.56 Bcf/d [sic; target - 7.758 Bcf/d? -- D.R]. [Read full]

(According to BPMigas data, Indonesia's oil production was only 916,000 barrels per day as of the end of April 2011---please see The Jakarta Post, June 3, 2011, here.  Indonesia's crude oil production has been declining since 1997, due to the maturation of the country's largest oil fields and failure to develop new, comparable resources. In 1996 it produced 1,547,486 barrels of crude oil including lease condensate per day---please see EIA's data, here. Indonesia was a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries/OPEC from 1962 to 2008. In 2004, the country became a net oil importer and in January 2009, suspended its OPEC membership. BPMigas and the Indonesian government have introduced policies aimed at increasing investment in the country's upstream sector - in particular via investment incentives and improving the flexibility of the production sharing contracts/PSC bidding process---read more U.S. EIA, Indonesia Country Analysis Brief, May 2011, here. According to the Oil & Gas Journal's Jan 1, 2011 estimate, Indonesia's proved oil reserves stand at 3.99 billion barrels. Indonesia was the third-largest exporter of liquefied natural gas/LNG in the world in 2009, following only Qatar and Malaysia. And in 2010, it was Japan's third-largest LNG supplier, after Malaysia and Australia---please see charts, here -- D.R.)

No comments:

Post a Comment