Saturday, December 11, 2010

World Energy Outlook 2010 (Presentation to the Press)

by the International Energy Agency (IEA), London, November 9, 2010
WEO-2010 projects global energy production and consumption out to 2035. Here are some of the highlights [my emphases, D.R.] of the IEA report/forecast:
  • Oil production becomes less crude - Global oil production reaches 96 mb/d in 2035 on the back of rising output of natural gas liquids & unconventional oil, as crude oil production plateaus.
  • More oil from fewer producers - Production rises most in Saudi Arabia & Iraq, helping to push OPEC's market share from 41% today to 52% by 2035, a level last seen prior to the first oil shock of 1973-1974.
  • Caspian energy riches could enhance global energy security - Kazakhstan drives an increase in Caspian oil production to 5.2 mb/d by 2035, while Turkmenistan & Azerbaijan push up gas production to over 310 bcm.
  • International oil price assumptions - The age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bring lower international prices than would otherwise be the case. More

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