Showing posts with label Malaysia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Malaysia. Show all posts

Monday, June 6, 2011

Indonesia to Fall Short of 2011 Oil Output Target - BPMigas

Platts, May 25, 2011
Indonesia's crude and condensate production this year will likely average between 933,000 b/d and 945,000 b/d, below its target of 970,000 b/d as a result of unplanned shutdowns, the chairman of upstream regulator BPMigas said Tuesday [please see remarks below -- D.R.].

"The average production this year is expected [to] reach 933,000 b/d in minimum or 945,000 b/d in maximum," R. Priyono said in a parliamentary hearing. [...]

Gas production is now expected to average 7.808 Bcf/d, exceeding its target this year of 7.769 Bcf/d, Priyono said. [...]

The country's oil and gas revenue in 2011 is now seen reaching $31.088 billion, well above the target of $26.554 billion, as crude and gas prices are expected to be higher than previously forecast. [...]

Indonesia's crude and condensate output has been steadily sliding for at least the last decade [also, please see my post "Top 8 Oil Producers in Asia & Oceania, 2006-2010," and please see remarks below -- D.R.] because of natural declines at aging fields. But the government hopes to be able to produce 1 million b/d of crude and condensate by 2013.

The country failed to achieve its 2010 crude target of 965,000 b/d, pumping only 947,000 b/d. However the country exceeded last year's gas production by 17.4% to 8.88 Bcf/d from a target of 7.56 Bcf/d [sic; target - 7.758 Bcf/d? -- D.R]. [Read full]

(According to BPMigas data, Indonesia's oil production was only 916,000 barrels per day as of the end of April 2011---please see The Jakarta Post, June 3, 2011, here.  Indonesia's crude oil production has been declining since 1997, due to the maturation of the country's largest oil fields and failure to develop new, comparable resources. In 1996 it produced 1,547,486 barrels of crude oil including lease condensate per day---please see EIA's data, here. Indonesia was a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries/OPEC from 1962 to 2008. In 2004, the country became a net oil importer and in January 2009, suspended its OPEC membership. BPMigas and the Indonesian government have introduced policies aimed at increasing investment in the country's upstream sector - in particular via investment incentives and improving the flexibility of the production sharing contracts/PSC bidding process---read more U.S. EIA, Indonesia Country Analysis Brief, May 2011, here. According to the Oil & Gas Journal's Jan 1, 2011 estimate, Indonesia's proved oil reserves stand at 3.99 billion barrels. Indonesia was the third-largest exporter of liquefied natural gas/LNG in the world in 2009, following only Qatar and Malaysia. And in 2010, it was Japan's third-largest LNG supplier, after Malaysia and Australia---please see charts, here -- D.R.)

Saturday, May 14, 2011

Top 8 Oil Producers in Asia & Oceania, 2006-2010 -- EIA

by Aaron and David Rachovich


Production of Crude Oil including Lease Condensate (Thousand Barrels Per Day), 2006-2010



Rank
Country
Full Year 2010 Average

Full Year 2009 Average
Full Year 2008 Average
Full Year 2007 Average
Full Year 2006 Average
1.
China
4,076
3,799
3,790
3,729
3,673
2.
Indonesia
943
946
972
964
1,019
3.
India
752
680
694
698
689
4.
Malaysia
554
578
609
588
613
5.
Australia
436
475
477
465
429
6.
Vietnam
318
299
300
319
345
7.
Thailand
242
238
229
213
204
8.
Brunei
136
131
133
155
198
Top 8 countries
7,457
7,146
7,204
7,131
7,170
Asia & Oceania total
7,753
7,442
7,518
7,416
7,459
Africa total
9,997
9,757
9,989
9,949
9,641
All Countries (World)
74,043
72,259
73,655
72,986
73,428



Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Statistics, here.

(Figures above may be updated at any time by EIA. Also, please see Aaron and David Rachovich, "World's Top 22 Oil Producers, Full Year 2010 (including OPEC and plus 2009 production)," here. And our post "Top 25 World Oil Consumers, 2009-2010," here. -- D.R.)

China Plans to Exploit its Shale Gas Resources

The Institute for Energy Research (IER), Apr 27, 2011
America’s shale gas production alone has exceeded that of total Chinese gas output. That gives us a lot of confidence,” said Zhang Dawei, deputy director of the Strategic Research Center for Oil and Gas in the Ministry of Land and Resources [please see remarks below -- D.R.].

China is looking at the production and resources of shale gas in the United States and is planning to emulate them. China’s technically recoverable resources of shale gas are estimated to be about 50 percent higher than those in the United States, which ranks second to China in a recent assessment of shale gas resources in 32 countries [also, please see my post/table "Estimated Shale Gas Technically Recoverable Resources for Select Basins in 32 Countries -- EIA," here -- D.R.]. In November 2009, during a state visit to Beijing, President Obama signed a cooperation pact with China that provides for U.S. expertise in drilling for shale gas. [...] China’s goal is to have about a fifth of its natural gas production come from unconventional gas, mainly shale gas, by 2030.

China’s Natural Gas Production and Consumption

In 2009, China produced 2,929 billion cubic feet of natural gas and consumed 3,075 billion cubic feet, importing 146 billion cubic feet. The country relies on natural gas for only 3 percent of its energy consumption, getting more than 70 percent of its energy from coal, followed by 19 percent from oil and 6 percent from hydropower [in 2008]. The government is planning to increase consumption of natural gas to a 10-percent share by 2030, and will need to continue importing gas through liquefied natural gas facilities and pipelines from neighboring countries. The [U.S.] Energy Information Administration projects that gas demand in China will more than triple by 2035, growing at 5 percent a year.

China’s government is looking to foreign investors to help develop production of its unconventional gas resources—coal bed methane and shale gas. China’s technically recoverable resources of shale gas are estimated to be 1,275 trillion cubic feet and its technically recoverable resources of coal bed methane are estimated at 350 trillion cubic feet. According to the Ministry of Land [and] Resources, China’s goals regarding shale gas are to discover 35 trillion cubic feet of recoverable shale gas reserves, build 500 to 1,000 billion cubic feet per year of production capacity and produce 8 to 12 percent of China’s total natural gas from shale gas by 2020.

Shale gas is one of China’s top targets for technological breakthroughs in its five year plan for 2011-2015. China’s Ministry of Land and Resources intended to hold its first auction of shale gas blocks in the first quarter of this year [it is already overdue -- D.R.], delaying it from November of last year. The auction is for eight exploration blocks in four provinces covering 18,000 square kilometers [please see update below -- D.R.]. [CNPC's listed arm,] PetroChina, which produces about 80 percent of China’s total gas output and is the world’s second-most valuable energy company, completed its first [horizontal] shale gas well in the Sichuan province last month [March 2011]. In February, PetroChina announced it would buy a $5.4 billion stake in Calgary-based Encana Corp’s shale gas assets. A China National Petroleum Corporation executive indicated, “We don’t care much about whether the market believes it’s a good or bad price. The top priority is gaining access to a resource and mature technology. Price is only a secondary consideration.” [Also, please see remarks below -- D.R.] [...]

Six months after President Obama’s visit in 2009, China and the United States set up a task force and agreed to jointly conduct a shale gas project, assessing an aging oil basin in China that was not very fruitful. According to industry officials, the U.S. government and companies have invited Chinese geologists for technical workshops and field trips, but Chinese firms are less interested about sharing technical information, or opening up new blocks for resource studies.

As of the end of 2009, China is estimated to have almost 21,000 miles of natural gas pipelines and is expanding at a rate of 6 percent per year. The Chinese government plans to construct 14,400 miles of new pipelines between 2009 and 2015. The West-East Gas Pipeline, which was commissioned in 2004, is China’s largest natural gas pipeline at 2,500 miles, linking major natural gas supply bases in western China with markets in the east. The pipeline’s annual capacity is 424 billion cubic feet and there are plans to increase it to 600 billion cubic feet. Four additional west-to-east pipelines are also planned with the second one to be completed in 2012.

China’s first import natural gas pipeline, the Central Asian Gas Pipeline, began operations in December 2009, carrying natural gas imports from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. The pipeline spans 1,130 miles and [had an initial] capacity of 200 billion cubic feet per year with plans to increase gas supply to 1.4 trillion cubic feet per year. China has signed agreements with Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Russia and Myanmar for gas supplies and additional pipeline construction in the future.

China imported its first shipment of liquefied natural gas in the summer of 2006 and imported 730 million cubic feet per day in 2009 and 1,120 million cubic feet per day in the first half of 2010. China has three regasification terminals, four under construction, and others in the approval process. China receives its liquefied natural gas from Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Qatar [and Russia -- D.R]. Because international liquefied natural gas prices are higher than domestic gas since their contracts are indexed to oil prices, competition may be greater from domestic gas, particularly shale gas, and neighboring sources in the future. For China to develop its shale gas resources, its natural gas pipeline system, which is about a tenth of the size of the system in the United States, would need to be significantly expanded, requiring billions of dollars. [...]

Conclusion

China has found another avenue for increasing its much needed energy supplies—shale gas. China is estimated to have more technically recoverable shale gas resources than any other country in the world. And, its people are very good at learning from and imitating experts around the world in extracting resources. Here again China is oblivious to environmental issues as it is in its use of coal for over 70 percent of its energy and its mining of rare earth minerals used in making certain renewable technologies and in weapon systems, where China dominates the global market.

For the United States, the country with the second largest technically recoverable shale gas resources, environmental concerns are at issue with demonstrations in Texas, New York, and Pennsylvania; public forums sponsored by the Environmental Protection Agency; and the threat of more studies to discredit the strides that hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have made to provide reasonably priced natural gas. While the United States has the technical expertise to develop its shale gas resources, it is challenged by those who want the American public to pay high energy prices. China, on the other hand, wants to provide a better standard of living for its people and is developing any resource that will pave the way. [Read more]

(In 2009, U.S. shale gas production amounted to 3.11 trillion cubic feet/tcf vis-à-vis total Chinese dry natural gas output of 2.93 tcf. In 2010, U.S. shale gas production jumped to 4.87 tcf, constituting 23 percent of total U.S. natural gas production, compared with 0.39 tcf in 2000. Сhina's natural gas production rose to 3.3 tcf in 2010, compared with 0.96 tcf in 2000. Separately, China's third-largest oil company and the country's largest offshore oil and gas producer China National Offshore Oil Corporation/CNOOC struck two deals with leading U.S. shale gas player Chesapeake in October 2010 and January 2011, giving it access to drilling leases in Texas, Wyoming and Colorado. "Chesapeake has accumulated abundant experience in drilling and completion in various U.S. shale plays," CNOOC said in a statement emailed to Reuters. "The techniques and experiences we learn from the U.S. shale projects will benefit our potential participation in other areas in the future." UPDATE: Four blocks were offered in the first tender issued June 27, 2011, all located in the Sichuan basin. The blocks in the tender are mostly in the southwestern Chongqing municipality and Guizhou province and cover an area of 11,000 square kilometers, smaller than an earlier announced plan to offer eight blocks with an area of 18,000 sq km. Only Chinese state-owned companies were invited to bid: PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum, CUCBM and Henan Provincial Coal Seam Gas. China has awarded two out of four shale gas blocks offered in its auction of the unconventional gas resource to China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., i.e. Sinopec, and Henan provincial coal seam gas company, a Chinese government official said Wednesday July 6, 2011. "Both blocks covering about 2,000 square kilometers [each - D.R.] are in the Chongqing area. The contracts will be signed shortly," an official with the Ministry of Land and Resources said. Sinopec won the Nanchuan block and Henan Provincial Coal Seam Gas was awarded the Xiushan block---please see Exhibit 2 or map from the Bernstein Research, July 7, 2011. A second round will take place later this year. -- D.R.)

Monday, March 28, 2011

Global Demand Pumps Up Australia's LNG Production

by Sarah-Jane Tasker, The Australian, Mar 9, 2011
AUSTRALIA'S liquefied natural gas production jumped 6.1 per cent [sic] last year, on the back of increasing global demand, which saw the value of exports hit a record $9.5 billion.

LNG production reached 19.8 million tonnes a year, compared with the previous year's 18.6 million tonnes, and the export value rose 24 per cent from $7.6bn, a report by energy economics group EnergyQuest revealed.

"The LNG momentum looks set to continue in 2011," EnergyQuest chief executive Graeme Bethune said.

"So far this year we have already seen another Gladstone LNG project, GLNG, in central Queensland, reaching sanction and the ConocoPhillips/Origin Energy APLNG project, also situated at Gladstone, reaching major milestones.

"Altogether, there are seven Australasian LNG projects aiming for final investment decisions in 2011, with combined capacity of around 40 million tonnes per annum." [...]

The report revealed that Australian natural gas production reached a record 1999 petajoules [some 1.8 tcf] last year [2010], up 5.1 per cent from the previous year's 1902PJ [1.7 tcf -- D.R.].

Australian domestic gas production increased 2.7 per cent to a record 1060PJ [nearly 1 tcf]. Despite the increases in production, the government's carbon tax proposal is set to have an impact on gas-fired electricity generation projects, with the uncertainty stalling the final go-ahead on plans. [...]

The results from last year also saw a turnaround in the nation's oil production, which reach 116 million barrels for the year [This was primarily owing to production from the Pyrenees, Van Gogh and Vincent oil fields, all situated off the northwest Western Australian coast -- D.R]. [Read more]

(Please see the latest EnergyQuest report here. Australia is the world's biggest coal exporter, and black coal is Australia's largest export, worth more than $A50 billion in 2008-09/year ending Jun 30. Also, Australia was the world’s fourth largest exporter of liquefied natural gas---LNG---in 2009, after Qatar, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Australia's LNG exports are expected to more than double by 2015-16, with the start-up of several major LNG projects, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences/ABARES, said in a report on Mar 1. Higher demand from consuming countries, especially China and India, in addition to Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian countries will also boost Australia's LNG export growth. Australia plans to export more than 60 million mt of LNG by 2020, to become the world's second-biggest LNG supplier behind Qatar. On Mar 29, 2011, Australian coal seam and shale gas explorer Icon Energy signed a binding agreement to supply China's Shantou Sinogas Energy Co., Ltd with 40 million mt of LNG over 20 years from mid-2016. Australia, with its 110 trillion cubic feet---tcf---of proved gas reserves, is the twelfth largest holder of natural gas reserves in the world, as of Jan 1, 2011---please see my post "World's Top 22 Natural Gas Proven Reserve Holders, Jan 1, 2011 -- OGJ," here. Moreover, according to The Oil and Gas Journal, Australia had 110 tcf of proven natural gas reserves as of Jan 1, 2010, triple OGJ's 2009 reserves estimate of 30 tcf. The upgrade is largely a result of increased exploration and development of its unconventional as well as conventional gas sources. It has been reported that unconventional gas deposits, i.e., coal seam and shale gas deposits, have become an increasingly larger component of gas reserves due to technological advances---please see EIA's analysis here. Japan is the primary destination of Australia's LNG. Japan accounted for 65% of Australian LNG exports in 2009. Fitch Ratings says the accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant could lead to a boost in Japanese demand for Australian thermal coal. An international credit-reporting agency also says increased Japanese demand for LNG could support additional LNG trains at the Browse and Pluto Basins, both offshore from northwest Western Australia. Australia was Japan's second-largest LNG supplier in 2010, after Malaysia---please see bar chart and pie chart below. Australian LNG shipments accounted for 19% of Japan's total LNG imports in 2010. For Japan's LNG imports in 2010, please see my posts here and here -- D.R.)
             [Click on bar chart to enlarge]
Source: Flower LNG via Reuters -- Reuters graphic/Stephen Culp, here. Notes: Obviously, Malaysia also includes East Malaysia/Malaysian Borneo (not indicated above). Also, the Musandam peninsula is an exclave of Oman (not indicated). Furthermore, publication date is incorrect. -- D.R. 
Source: U.S. EIA, Japan Country Analysis Brief, March 2011, here

Friday, March 25, 2011

World's Top 22 Natural Gas Proven Reserve Holders, Jan 1, 2011 -- OGJ

by Aaron and David Rachovich

Estimated Proved Reserves of Natural Gas

Rank
Country
Proved reserves
(billion cubic feet), Jan 1, 2011
Proved reserves (billion cubic feet), Jan 1, 2010
Share of  total, Jan 1, 2011
1.
Russia
1,680,000
1,680,000
25.3%
2.
Iran*
1,045,670
1,045,670
15.7%
3.
Qatar*
895,800
899,325
13.5%
4.
Saudi Arabia*
275,200
263,000
4.1%
5.
Turkmenistan
265,000
265,000
4.0%
6.
United States
244,656
244,656
3.7%
7.
United Arab Emirates*
227,900
214,400
3.4%
8.
Nigeria*
186,880
185,280
2.8%
9.
Venezuela*
178,860
175,970
2.7%
10.
Algeria*
159,000
159,000
2.4%
11.
Iraq*
111,940
111,940
1.7%
12.
Australia
110,000
110,000
1.7%
13.
China
107,000
107,000
1.6%
14.
Indonesia
106,000
106,000
1.6%
15.
Kazakhstan
85,000
85,000
1.3%
16.
Malaysia
83,000
83,000
1.2%
17.
Egypt
77,200
58,500
1.2%
18.
Norway
72,000
81,680
1.1%
19.
Uzbekistan
65,000
65,000
1.0%
20.
Kuwait*
63,000
63,000
0.9%
 21. 
Canada
  61,950  
61,950
0.9%
22.
Libya*
54,680
54,362
0.8%
Top 22 countries
6,155,736
6,119,733
92.6%
Rest of world
491,605
489,613
7.4%
World total
6,647,341
6,609,346
100.0%
Total OPEC**
3,211,152
3,182,829
48.3%

* OPEC member. Data for Kuwait and Saudi Arabia exclude one-half of the reserves in the Kuwait-Saudi Arabia Neutral Zone. Neutral Zone contains 1,000 bcf, i.e. 1 tcf, of gas reserves.
**Including also Angola, Ecuador and the Neutral Zone.
Source: "Special Report – Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production," Oil & Gas Journal, Dec 6, 2010.

(For the world's technically recoverable gas resources figure/estimate, including shale gas resources, please see my post "World Shale Gas Resources Outside US Assessed," here. Also, please see Aaron and David Rachovich, "World's Top 21 Natural Gas Producers, 2005-2010 -- BP," here and our post "World's Top 22 Proven Oil Reserves Holders, Jan 1, 2011 -- OGJ," here. Furthermore, please see "World's Top 23 Proven Oil Reserves Holders, Jan 1, 2012 -- OGJ" and "World's Top 15 Natural Gas Proven Reserve Holders, Jan 1, 2012 -- OGJ." -- D.R.)