Showing posts with label Egypt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Egypt. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Egyptian Gas Supply to Israel Almost Back to Normal: Sources

Platts, Jerusalem, Mar 22, 2011
Gas deliveries from Egypt to Israel have reached 90% of volumes prior to the cutoff on February 5 [please see my post, including remarks, here -- D.R.] and will continue to ramp up this week, Israeli energy industry sources said Tuesday.

Supplies resumed on March 15 after the export pipeline, which was damaged by an explosion, was fixed. Shipments also resumed to Jordan.

Meanwhile, Ampal-American Israel Corp [please see remarks below -- D.R.], a partner in the East Mediterranean Gas Company -- which exports the gas from Egypt to Israel -- said in its annual report Friday [sic] that the future policy of the Egyptian government may not coincide with that of EMG.

The statement said that there is no certainty that Egypt will meet its commitments regarding the supply of natural gas to Israel in the future.

EMG supplied Israel with 2.1 billion cubic meters of gas in 2010 and its contractual commitments are to increase this to 3 Bcm in 2011. EMG has signed commitments to supply 4.8 Bcm/year of gas starting in 2013 [sic].

The Ampal statement follows remarks last week by Egypt's new oil minister Abdallah Ghorab. He said that his ministry is re-examining the gas agreement with Israel, specifically the price at which gas is sold to Israel and other countries.

Ghorab said the agreements, signed under the auspices of the previous minister Sameh Fahmi, include a mechanism that permits amending the gas supply agreements. The minister said this would not be a complicated process.

Jordan is currently paying around $3/MMBtu [please see remarks below -- D.R.] while prices to Israel were raised by nearly 50% last year to around $4.50/MMBtu when the long-term supply agreement was renegotiated.

Israeli energy industry analysts have said the price of Egyptian gas sold to Israel could go as high as $6-6.50/MMBtu. [Full story]

(Also, Egypt wants to raise price of gas to Jordan. EMG is a joint company owned by Egyptian businessman Hussein Salem, Egypt Natural Gas Company, Thailand's PTT, Israel's Merhav Group, Ampal-American Israel Corp, American businessman Sam Zell and Israeli institutional investors. Ampal holds a 16.8% interest in EMG, with 8.2% held directly and 8.6% held through the joint venture with certain Israeli institutional investors, of which Ampal owns 50% and a 4.3% interest is attributable to the institutional investors. Excluding the institutional investors, Ampal has a 12.5% interest in EMG. -- D.R.)

Sunday, March 6, 2011

Fitch: Long Production Cut Biggest MENA Threat


By OGJ editors, OGJ, Mar 3, 2011
Long interruption of production represents the largest threat from political turmoil to the financial stability of oil and gas companies with operations in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) but remains unlikely, an international credit-reporting agency says.

A secondary risk, nationalization of assets by successor regimes in countries now experiencing unrest, is a “remote scenario,” although contract renegotiations by successor regimes remains possible, according to Fitch Ratings, New York and London.

A recent Fitch report covering North American companies with operations in the MENA region said credit pressures from unrest in Egypt, Libya, and other countries of concern are manageable.

Credit ratings are most sensitive to “widespread and long-lasting production” upsets, which Fitch doesn’t expect “due to the importance of oil revenues to the region’s economies.”

Most North American producers in the MENA region are large, integrated companies for which production in countries experiencing unrest is small in relation to total. Oil price increases mitigate the elevated risks of production losses and contract renegotiation.

Company exposures

Apache Corp. has the highest exposure among North American producers to any single country experiencing turmoil, Fitch said. Apache’s 163,300 boe/d of output in Egypt is 24% of Fitch’s assessment of the company’s recent total production.

Exposure levels in Libya include Marathon, 12% of total production; Suncor Energy Inc., 8%; Hess Corp., 5%; ConocoPhillips, 3%, and Occidental Petroleum Corp., 1%.

Fitch called Algeria “the other North African country that could present the largest concerns for North American-based upstream companies.” There, sizable exposure levels include Anadarko Petroleum Corp., 7% of total production, and Hess, 3%. ConocoPhillips produced 14,000 boe/d in Algeria in the third quarter last year, less than 1% of total production, according to Fitch estimates.

North American companies with production in restive Yemen include Nexen Inc., 11% of estimated total production, and Oxy, 6%.

Among European oil and gas companies tracked by Fitch, four have production in Libya or Egypt, the firm said in a separate report.

Eni, OMV, and Repsol have production exposure of 9-14% in Libya, “with Eni as the most exposed,” Fitch said. About one fourth of BG Energy Holdings Ltd.’s total oil and gas output is in Egypt.

“There could be a more pronounced impact on European oil and gas companies’ operations and financials if the political unrest spreads across Africa and/or the Middle East,” Fitch said, adding it “does not currently view this scenario as very likely.” [Full story]

Sunday, February 6, 2011

Egypt Pipeline Explosion Cuts Gas Supply to Israel

by Christopher Helman, Forbes (blog), Feb 5, 2011
An explosion today [Feb 5] on the Arab Gas Pipeline [AGP] forced Egypt to shut off natural gas supplies to Israel and Jordan. [...] [Egyptian] Oil Minister Sameh Fahmy reportedly said it could take up to two weeks to repair the damage.

The pipeline is the third most strategically important piece of energy infrastructure in Egypt after the Suez Canal and the Sumed Pipeline. But it [its El Arish-Ashkelon branch] is the most important one to Israel, delivering 40% of Israeli natural gas supplies. [Total gas consumption in Israel stood at around 5.2 bcm in 2010, of which 2.1 bcm were imported from Egypt -- D.R.]. The Israeli government said this afternoon that it did not expect any interruption of electricity supplies as the country has gas in storage and can also switch to other fuels like [fuel] oil and diesel. Israel started receiving gas from the [El Arish-Ashkelon submarine] pipeline in 2008. [...]

One thing is for sure. Faced with insecure gas supplies from Egypt, Israel must now move with haste to develop the massive reserves of natural gas recently discovered offshore. You can read about them here (Leviathan Oil Field Could Supply Israel For Decades) and here (Israel Confirms Leviathan Gas Find). [Please read also my post here]. Read more

(The branch of the pipeline that carries natural gas into Israel wasn’t directly damaged in the incident, as the Sinai incident occurred on a part of the natural-gas network before it divides into branches serving Jordan, Syria and Lebanon, via Jordan, and Israel, via El Arish-Ashkelon branch. The blast occurred at around 7 a.m. (0500 GMT) on Saturday at a gas terminal, three km from the El Arish airport, North Sinai governor Abdel Wahab Mabrouk told reporters. He said the fire was brought under control by mid-morning, after valves allowing the flow of gas from the terminal into pipelines were shut off. Actually a fire and explosion at a gas metering station forced Egypt's gas transport company/Egyptian Natural Gas Company---GASCO---to cut off supplies to the Arab Gas Pipeline/AGP linking Egypt to Jordan, Syria, etc., as well as the pipeline supplying Egyptian gas to Israel. Egypt is an important gas producer of 64 bcm/y, of which some 45 bcm/y is consumed domestically and some 19 bcm/y is exported, mostly as LNG, according to the International Energy Agency. Gas demand has been increasing very fast over the past decade at 8%/year. Due to this growth, gas exports have been limited to one third of the reserve base. Liquefaction capacity stands at 16 bcm and exports averaged 14 bcm over 2007-09. The LNG produced in Egypt is going to Spain (4.3), U.S. (4.5), UK (0.5), South Korea (1.9) and France (1.4). Some 5 bcm/y is exported by pipeline, mostly to Jordan, Israel and Syria. Both Jordan and Israel’s power sectors are dependent on gas. See also my remarks here. Furthermore, Israel's Yam Thetis field---a major supplier of gas to Israel---off coastal Ashkelon was prepared to help compensate for the loss of Egyptian gas. The halt in Egyptian supplies also triggered a request for faster development of a floating LNG import terminal project. The planned location for the LNG import facility/floating platform/offshore LNG buoy is just off Israel's central Mediterranean coast at Hadera. For Egypt's East Mediterranean Gas Supply Corp, i.e. EMG, the gas exporting company via the 100-kilometer (62-mile) El Arish-Ashkelon submarine pipeline, please read my blog posts under the category/label "Israel." UPDATE: For the resumption of Egyptian gas supply to Israel, please see my post here. -- D.R.)

Monday, January 31, 2011

World Watch: [Oil/Gas Markets and Egypt]

by Jim Washer, EI
Geopolitics is making a comeback in oil markets. WikiLeaks revelations in December about Arab support for a US nuclear strike against Iran gave a modest boost to crude oil futures, and now civil unrest in Egypt has provided the impetus to push prices above $100/bbl for the first time since September 2008. Egypt is a significant oil and gas producer, but is more important as an energy transit point -- together, the Suez Canal and the Sumed [Suez-Mediterranean] pipeline handle around 2.8 million b/d of crude and products as well as 7% of the world’s LNG trade. [See remarks below -- D.R.]. While Egypt is therefore an important chokepoint, energy markets are in unusually good shape to cope with any disruption. Oil prices may have revisited $100/bbl, but there is plenty of slack in global energy infrastructure -- Opec is sitting on some 6 million b/d of spare upstream capacity, and commercial and strategic inventories remain ample. [Full story]

(Closure of the Suez Canal and the Sumed Pipeline---see map, sorry for the blurriness and the proportion, and photo below---would divert tankers around the southern tip of Africa, the Cape of Good Hope, adding 6,000 miles---or 9,656 kilometers---to transit, according to the Energy Information Administration--EIA, increasing both costs and shipping time. According to a report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), shipping around Africa would add 15 days of transit to Europe and 8-10 days to the United States. On the other hand, energy analysts believe the real risk is not a closure of the desert conduits---the Suez Canal and the Sumed Pipeline---but that the unrest gripping Cairo will spread to neighboring nations or other Arab countries. Barclays Capital Research report---accessed via Platts, here---noted that around 14% of the world's LNG trade transits the Suez Canal each day with the vast majority of cargoes originating in the Middle East and heading towards Atlantic Basin markets. Also, Egypt exported around 2 Bcf/d of gas in 2009, the majority [some 70%] in LNG form, accounting for around 3.2% of global LNG supply. "In the event of a disruption of LNG exports from Egypt, the greatest implications for gas markets would be for Spain," Barclays Capital said, adding that global LNG markets were well supplied with "ample" production capacity available to meet any potential Egyptian shortfall. The report also noted that Egypt exports gas via the Arab Gas Pipeline, or AGP, and its El Arish-Ashkelon branch, which has the capacity to carry about 1 Bcf/d to Israel, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria. "Most Egyptian [oil] drilling activity has been halted as a result of the political instability, as several international E&P companies have announced staff evacuations," Barclays said. "Gas production, however, has not been affected so far, and there have been no reports of force majeure on LNG deliveries. Egypt's sea ports are officially open, although staff shortages and an absence of customs officials at the Alexandria and Damietta ports are reported to cause traffic disruptions." Egypt has two LNG plants at Idku and Damietta and operations have so far not been affected despite the evacuation of foreign staff. Gas flow to Israel has also not been interrupted. Israel received an estimated 2.1 billion cubic meters, i.e. bcm, in pipeline gas from Egypt in 2010, up from 1.7 bcm a year earlier. -- D.R.)

                                             Source: Oil Capital Ltd. via EIA

                                    Photo: Suez Canal

Source: National Geographic. Description: A tanker carrying liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes through Egypt's Suez Canal in 2007.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Israel Corp Seeks Guarantees from Tamar on Future Gas Supplies

Platts, Jan 17, 2011
Israel Corporation Ltd has given the Tamar consortium until February 1 to guarantee that it can meet the holding company's timetable for supplying natural gas to its subsidiaries, according to Israel Corporation Ltd officials Monday.

The request came in the form of a letter to the partners in the Tamar consortium.

The Israel Corp. letter stated that if the Tamar consortium was unable to meet the timetable then the company would be free to sign agreements with other suppliers.

Israel Corp is expected to be the largest industrial consumer of natural gas in Israel and second only to the state owned Israel Electric Corp.

Last month, the holding company signed an agreement with East Mediterranean Gas Supply Corp., or EMG, for the initial supply of 1.4 billion cubic meters of gas from Egypt beginning in the second quarter of 2011. [See my post here -- D.R.]

The 20-year EMG contract is for supplies to three companies controlled by Israel Corp -- Oil Refineries Ltd, Israel Chemicals and OPC Rotem.

A senior Israel Corp. official said that a contract for an additional 1.5 Bcm/year of supplies could eventually go to the Tamar consortium, which comprises Noble Energy Inc, Delek Drilling, Avner Oil and Gas, Isramco and Dor Gas.

Israel Corp. CEO Nir Gilad made it clear that the holding company would prefer to buy from local producers. But Israel Corp. said at the time of the signing of the EMG contract that it also had an option until March 31 for an additional 1.5 Bcm/year in supplies from Egypt.

The Tamar consortium is hoping to commence deliveries of gas in 2013 but the development of the huge offshore field has been held up over the debate in Israel over a change in the tax regime for oil and gas exploration companies.

The companies charge that the proposed changes by a finance ministry-appointed committee earlier this month would make it difficult to raise the necessary funds for developing the field.

The committee headed by Professor Eitan Sheshinski recommended increasing the government take on oil and gas profits [i.e. the share of the state in the net profits -- D.R.] from the current level of less than 30% to 50 to 62%. In addition, the committee recommended a tax on profits ranging from 20% to a maximum of 50%, accelerated depreciation, a lower level of taxation be imposed on oil and gas fields that begin production by 2014, retaining the 12.5% royalty tax and the cancellation of the depletion allowance. The Israeli government is expected to decide in the coming weeks on the tax issue.

The agreement between the Israel Corp. and EMG was seen as a setback for the Tamar consortium, which was hoping to clinch the entire deal. ...

(Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on Tuesday (Jan 18) said that he fully accepts the recommendations of the Sheshinski Committee. -- D.R.)

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

EMG, Israel Corp in Deal on 1.4 Bcm-2.9 Bcm/year Gas Supplies

by Platts, December 13, 2010
[Egypt's] East Mediterranean Gas Supply Corp has signed agreements to supply 1.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas to three companies controlled by the Israel Corp., according to a statement Monday by Ampal-American Israel Corp.

The statement said that the agreements are for a total of 1.4 Bcm a year for 20 years with an option to increase the total to 2.9 Bcm/year. The total value of the five contracts with Oil Refineries Ltd, Israel Chemicals and OPC Rotem was put at $5 billion-$10 billion.

Gas supplies are scheduled to commence in the second quarter of 2011. The agreement was seen as a setback for the Tamar consortium which was hoping to clinch the entire deal. The Tamar consortium comprises Noble Energy Inc., Delek Drilling, Avner Oil and Gas, Isramco and Dor Gas. A source close to the Israel Corp said that it had left open the remaining 1.5 Bcm of purchases. Israeli energy industry sources said that this could eventually go to the Tamar consortium. Israeli energy industry sources said Monday's announcement could have a detrimental impact on the development of the Tamar field which was scheduled to begin commercial deliveries in 2013. ...

(EMG is a joint company owned by Egyptian businessman Hussein Salem, Egypt Natural Gas Company, Thailand's PTT, Israel's Merhav Group, Ampal-American Israel Corp, American businessman Sam Zell and Israeli institutional investors. -- D.R.)